A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
